Tuesday, April 17, 2007

the carbon cycle and dogma

Here is a significant new paper and accompanying PowerPoint by a Norwegian scientist, Tom Segalstad. The gist of his paper is that the empirical measurement of carbon dioxide levels and, in particular, the rate at which carbon dioxide dissipates, are counter-indicative to the theory of anthropogenic global warming. In effect, Segalstad contends the data on carbon dioxide levels are sufficient to reject the AGW thesis. He concludes:
...dogma is, according to dictionaries, considered an arrogant and authoritative declaration of opinion based on a priori principles, not on induction, and often as a sacrament or commandment for religious belief. Review of the basis for the "Greenhouse Effect Global Warming" doom makes its components appear neither supported by reality nor the scientific method of natural sciences, making it rather a preconceived idea or tenet sharing most features of a dogma.
It is in paper's such as this that the ultimate demise of the AGW thesis will occur: the political value of the environmentalist dogma rests on the certitude of the science that it invokes. Once the wider science community cuts into the heart of the central premises, two things will occur:
  1. we will greatly improve our understanding of climate and the dynamics of climate change, and
  2. the AGW fear will fade and be replaced by a more responsible, reasoned and nuanced strategy for continued adaptation to climatic change on a regionally contextualized basis.
Oh, and yes, in all likelihood a new yet to be discovered, threat to the world's existence will be unveiled by the same suspects who foisted acid rain, over-population, pesticides, obesity and AGW onto the public.